Congressional hearings, Jul 21, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during House Oversight of Financial Crimes hearing?
Markets
16 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Security | Yes | 72%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Genius Act | Yes | 71%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 68%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | Yes | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Treasury | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stablecoin | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cartel | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 46%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Cybersecurity | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 64%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorism / Terrorist | No | 60%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| IRS | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ransomware | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | No | 47%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUL21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP