Congressional hearings, Jul 22, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during House Shipbuilding hearing?
Markets
15 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Security | Yes | 74%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 70%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Subsidy / Subsidize | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Coast Guard | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Commercial | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fleet | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Japan | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Korea | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 55%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Automation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Taiwan | Yes | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 76%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| COSCO | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Robot / Robotic / Robotics | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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