Congressional hearings, Feb 14, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the DHS Oversight Hearing
Markets
18 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Accountable / Accountability | Yes | 64%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Walz | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Body Cam / Body Camera | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Constitutional / Constitution | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kristi / Noem | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mask / Masked | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Protest / Protester | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Violent / Violence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCONGRESSMENTION-26FEB14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP