Congressional hearings, Jul 30, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during Senate Artificial Intelligence hearing?
Markets
15 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Security | Yes | 76%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | 75%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rural | Yes | 70%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Investment / Invested | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 64%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Satellite | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Data Center | Yes | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 59%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 54%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Privacy | No | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Automate / Automated / Automation | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 44%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| SpaceX | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUL30B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP