Congressional hearings, Mar 7, 2026
Kalshi What will the House GOP reps say during their news conference on DHS funding?
Markets
15 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: company speakers Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Border | Yes | 69%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | Yes | 68%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | 39%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Taxpayer | No | 73%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bipartisan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Noem | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Healthcare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal Alien | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Schumer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26MAR07 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP