Congressional hearings, Mar 11, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the hearing on US Fiscal Responsibility & Economic Growth?
Markets
17 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 69%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Defense / Military | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Social Security | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unsustainable | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World War | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bipartisan | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Highway | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Refund | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SNAP / Food Stamp | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stablecoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | 47%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 45%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMENTION-WITN26MAR11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP