Congressional hearings, Mar 25, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Senate hearing on sanctuary cities?
Markets
19 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Yes | 79%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Yes | 75%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Yes | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | Yes | 72%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | 68%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / DHS | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 53%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Homan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billion | No | 78%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Insurance / Insured | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Renee / Pretti | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| San Francisco | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Walz | No | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXCONGRESSMENTION-26MAR25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP