Congressional hearings, Jun 17, 2026
Kalshi What will the witnesses say during the Senate hearing on China's Toll on Older Americans?
Markets
15 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: any witness Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Security | Yes | 74%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 73%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| CCP / Communist | Yes | 57%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | Yes | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pharmaceutical | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 38%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Exploit / Exploited / Exploitation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Small Business | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| TikTok | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 56%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Censor / Censored / Censorship | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXHEARINGMENTION-26JUN17C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP