ABC World News Tonight, October 5, 2026
On the Oct 5, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 5 of the 15 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 13 | 13 | ✓ | 28%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Pneumonic / Plague | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 63%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Dubai / Tel Aviv | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 59%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 56%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Romo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Unemployment | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Wildfire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Climate Change | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gatorade | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Marine | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
…what they tell her. Also breaking tonight, the alarming reports out of Russia. A young lab researcher dying from what Russian officials are calling pneumonia…
Speculation growing tonight, she died from a suspected case of the plague. Several hospitals under quarantine and we reached out to Dr. Jha today. What…
…that base in the UK where several suspects were arrested. Tonight, President Trump says there was a threat. And what are U.S. authorities most concerned…
…redeployment of at least a dozen American B-1 bombers used for vital missions in Iran from a base in the U.K. back to the U.S.
…an image from a now-deleted LinkedIn profile, had operated a flight to Tel Aviv in July and intended to crash that plane but aborted his…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-10-05:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-10-05:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP