ABC World News Tonight, September 30, 2026
On the Sep 30, 2026 episode of ABC World News Tonight, 5 of the 15 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with 12 of 15 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
15 words · 5 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 15- Kalshi: any host or reporter
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 65%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Dubai / Tel Aviv | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hurricane / Polo | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iraq | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hegseth | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 2 | 2 | ✗ | 49%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Terror / Terrorist / Terrorism | No | 1 | 1 | ✗ | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 61%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Jack Smith | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dengue | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| OpenAI / Anthropic | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine / Ukrainian / Zelenskyy | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 34%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=11 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsMachine transcript · ABC World News Tonight podcast audio (ABC), machine transcript · Source · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
Where the listed words were said
…now. The Texas Senate race, What the Republican in that race is caught on audio saying about President Trump and his recent convention in Texas.
…was stabbed about two hours into the flight from the UAE to Tel Aviv. Heroic passengers and crew then bursting into the cockpit when that…
The system fueled by remnants of Hurricane Polo inundating communities in southern Utah. That system now spreading into Colorado, Texas and Iowa this week. And…
…involves changes at the Pentagon and a shift for the U.S. in Iraq. David, in the middle of this war with Iran, Secretary Pete Hagseth…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/world-news-tonight:2026-09-30:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=world-news-tonight:2026-09-30:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP