Will “ICE” be said on The Last Word next time?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “ICE” was said on The Last Word in 1 of 21 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 25, 2026 (5%), most recently on Jun 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=21, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0 of them.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
ICE
- Probability
- 21% · n=21
- Settled
- 1/21 (5%)
- Last 8 episodes
- said in 0 of 2 that name the speakers
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 22 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2026 | ICE |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 26, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 25, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 29, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 22, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 21, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 20, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 15, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 30, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 25, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 18, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 17, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Jun 15, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 10, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 1, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 28, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 25, 2026 | ICE | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often is “ICE” said on The Last Word?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, “ICE” was said on The Last Word in 1 of 21 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 25, 2026 (5%), most recently on Jun 15, 2026.
- What is the probability “ICE” is said on The Last Word next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=21). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘ICE’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/ice (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=ice · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP