Donald Trump: Remarks, Feb 3, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say on The Dan Bongino Show?
Polymarket What will Trump say during signing at 2pm?
Markets
24 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=166 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 61%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 41%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Walz | Yes | 29%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Eight War | No | 54%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 50%n=133 from settlement history | – |
| Highest Inflation | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Scam | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Criminal | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Greenland | No | 42%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Stupid | No | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Paid Agitator / Professional Agitator | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Clinton | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Best 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kash / Patel | No | 40%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 38%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 38%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake News | No | 34%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 33%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Mistake | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | 30%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 27%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 16%n=254 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-signing-at-2pm · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP