Will Donald Trump say “Mistake”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Mistake” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Mistake
- Probability
- 38% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…We've been helping, through Joe Biden originally -- and he made a mistake because he should have done it through the European Union and he…
…for terror. But they refused. They absolutely refused. That was a big mistake Then in Operation Midnight Hammer, the U.S. military obliterated their nuclear program…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Mistake”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Mistake” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jan 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Mistake” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Mistake’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/mistake (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=mistake · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP