Will Donald Trump say “MAGA” 4+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “MAGA” 4+ times at 3 of 12 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 7, 2024 (25%), most recently on Oct 31, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (4+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no no yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
MAGA 4+ times
- Probability
- 41% · n=12
- Settled
- 3/12 (25%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Okay. MAGA GOP on Trump. In the 2024 election versus Kla Harris, he got 99% of the MAGA GOP vote. Perhaps surprisingly, I might have…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…science. It's 49 percent less. If I can get my voters -- MAGA, Republicans, whatever you want to call them, if they get out to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | MAGA 4+ times |  Polymarket | No |
| Nov 3, 2024 | MAGA 4+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 31, 2024 | MAGA 4+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 29, 2024 | MAGA 4+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 18, 2024 | MAGA 4+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 25, 2024 | MAGA 4+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 23, 2024 | MAGA 4+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 21, 2024 | MAGA 4+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 17, 2024 | MAGA 4+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 13, 2024 | MAGA 4+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 12, 2024 | MAGA 4+ times | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 7, 2024 | MAGA 4+ times | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “MAGA 4+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “MAGA” 4+ times at 3 of 12 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 7, 2024 (25%), most recently on Oct 31, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “MAGA 4+ times” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘MAGA 4+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/maga-4plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=maga%20%284%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP