Donald Trump: Monthly window, Jul 31, 2026

By Jul 31Monthly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

47 known appearances
35 of 47 known appearances transcribed Window: Jul 3, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump. Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

32 words · 11 settled yes · our count agreed on 8 of 9

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Turkey / Turkiye Yes3344✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Eagle Yes66✓56%n=2 from settlement history–
Bear Yes56✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Bird Yes22✓56%n=2 from settlement history–
Pig Yes22✓38%n=3 from settlement history–
Bull Yes12✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Dove Yes11✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Hawk Yes11✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Snake Yes–0–60%n=3 from settlement history–
Tiger Yes–2–56%n=5 from settlement history–
Mosquito Yes–0–41%n=2 from settlement history–
Goat No22✗39%n=4 from settlement history–
Dog No–0–60%n=12 from settlement history–
Elephant No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Giraffe No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Shark No–0–56%n=3 from settlement history–
Fish No–0–56%n=2 from settlement history–
Monkey No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Swan No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Lion No–0–48%n=2 from settlement history–
Deer No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Frog No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Mouse No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Panther No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Rabbit / Bunny No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Turtle No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Whale No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Wolf No–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Kangaroo No–0–41%n=2 from settlement history–
Chicken No–0–39%n=2 from settlement history–
Cat No–0–38%n=7 from settlement history–
Hippo / Hippopotamus No–0–34%n=2 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

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