# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-07-31 (settled) · 32 words · P p:what-animals-will-trump-say-in-july-20260702143051066 · as_of 2026-10-27T20:21:37Z
# scope P named · n/y settled before 2026-07-31 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-07-27..2026-07-30 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v P · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules P p:what-animals-will-trump-say-in-july-20260702143051066 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between July 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage 35 of 47 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-22T15:20:01Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Snake	snake	3	2	0.67	nYY	8	0	0.6	hist	0	0	yes		1
Dog	dog	12	5	0.42	YnnnnnYYYn	8	0	0.6	hist	0	0	no		1
Turkey / Turkiye	turkey|turkiye	2	2	1	YY	8	1	0.56	hist	33	44	yes	1	
Bear	bear	1	1	1	Y	8	1	0.56	hist	5	6	yes	1	
Bull	bull	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.56	hist	1	2	yes	1	
Elephant	elephant	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.56	hist	0	0	no		1
Giraffe	giraffe	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.56	hist	0	0	no		1
Tiger	tiger	5	3	0.6	YnYYn	8	0	0.56	hist	0	2	yes		1
Bird	bird	2	1	0.5	nY	8	0	0.56	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Eagle	eagle	2	1	0.5	nY	8	1	0.56	hist	6	6	yes	1	
Fish	fish	2	1	0.5	nY	8	0	0.56	hist	0	0	no		1
Shark	shark	3	1	0.33	nnY	8	0	0.56	hist	0	0	no		1
Lion	lion	2	1	0.5	Yn	8	0	0.48	hist	0	0	no		1
Kangaroo	kangaroo	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Mosquito	mosquito	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.41	hist	0	0	yes		1
Deer	deer	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Frog	frog	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Hawk	hawk	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.41	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Mouse	mouse	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Panther	panther	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Rabbit / Bunny	bunny|rabbit	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Turtle	turtle	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Whale	whale	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Wolf	wolf	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.41	hist	0	0	no		1
Goat	goat	4	1	0.25	nYnn	8	0	0.39	hist	2	2	no	0	
Chicken	chicken	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.39	hist	0	0	no		1
Cat	cat	7	2	0.29	YnnnYnn	8	0	0.38	hist	0	0	no		1
Pig	pig	3	0	0	nnn	8	0	0.38	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Hippo / Hippopotamus	hippo|hippopotamus	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.34	hist	0	0	no		1
Dove	dove	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	1	1	yes	1	
Monkey	monkey	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	0	0	no		1
Swan	swan	0	0			8	0	0.49	prior	0	0	no		1