Will Donald Trump say “Bear”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Bear” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 31, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jul 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Bear
- Probability
- 57% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…his quotes. Byron Donald's will always defend your right to keep and bear arms just like I do. And Byron was one of the first…
…said, "Oh, they have a lion, a snake, a giraffe, and a bear." And they said, "Which is the snake? And then when they report…
…She will always defend you and keep you and the right to bear arms and your second amendment. She's in there all the way. and…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Bear”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Bear” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 31, 2026 (100%), most recently on Jul 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Bear” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Bear’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/bear (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=bear · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP