Will Donald Trump say “Bird”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Bird” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 1, 2025 (67%), most recently on Jul 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Bird
- Probability
- 57% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…up here, fellas. Chris McGawan here in the fourth district and Brena Bird from Iowa attorney general has been my fan and my we love…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bird |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Bird | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Bird |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Bird”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Bird” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 1, 2025 (67%), most recently on Jul 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Bird” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Bird’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/bird (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=bird · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP