# JD Vance (jd-vance) · remarks 2026-09-14 · 25 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP14B · as_of 2026-10-25T05:22:39Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-14 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 remarks transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP14B ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Webco remarks in Olathe originally scheduled for September 14, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime	tax on overtime|tax on tip	10	9	0.9	YYYYnYYYYY	5	0	0.73	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	41	30	0.73	nYYnYYYYYY	5	4	0.65	hist	yes
Biden	biden	58	38	0.66	nYYnnYYYYY	5	4	0.59	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	17	13	0.76	YnYYYYYnnY	5	2	0.58	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	36	24	0.67	YYYYnnYYYY	5	3	0.58	hist	no
Invest / Invested / Investment	invest|invested|investment	0	0			5	3	0.55	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	40	22	0.55	nnYYYnYYYY	5	3	0.53	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	39	20	0.51	nYnYYYYnYY	5	3	0.53	hist	yes
Steel	steel	3	2	0.67	YYn	5	0	0.5	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	13	8	0.62	nYYnYYYnYn	5	2	0.5	hist	no
Manufacturing	manufacturing	22	13	0.59	YnnYnYYnYY	5	2	0.49	hist	yes
American Dream	american dream	30	18	0.6	nYnnnnYnnY	5	0	0.48	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	24	12	0.5	YYYYYnnYYn	5	3	0.47	hist	no
Election	election	30	14	0.47	YYnnnYnYYY	5	1	0.47	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	28	12	0.43	YYnnYnYYnY	5	3	0.46	hist	yes
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	6	3	0.5	nYnYnY	5	4	0.45	hist	no
Small Business	small business	4	2	0.5	YnYn	5	1	0.45	hist	yes
California	california	18	10	0.56	YYnYYnnnYn	5	1	0.44	hist	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	18	7	0.39	nnnnYnnnYY	5	3	0.41	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	31	11	0.35	YnnnnYYnYn	5	1	0.37	hist	no
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	15	4	0.27	nnnnYnnnYY	5	1	0.33	hist	no
Made in America / American Made	american made|made in america	8	1	0.12	nnYnnnnn	5	0	0.22	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	45	8	0.18	nnnnnnYnYn	5	3	0.21	hist	no
America First	america first	38	5	0.13	nnnnnnYnnn	5	0	0.19	hist	no
Barbecue	barbecue	0	0			5	0	0.4	prior	yes