# JD Vance (jd-vance) · presser 2026-09-03 · 27 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP03 · as_of 2026-10-24T16:06:14Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-03 · tn/th last 4 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-06-18 (under 2 presser transcripts) · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26SEP03 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of press conference originally scheduled for September 3, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Democrat	democrat	1	39	28	0.72	nYnYYnYYYY	4	3	0.61	yes
Inflation	inflation	1	16	12	0.75	YYnYYYYYnn	4	1	0.55	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	34	22	0.65	nnYYYYnnYY	4	2	0.54	yes
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	14	9	0.64	YYnYYnnYYn	4	1	0.52	yes
Save America Act	save america act	1	0	0			4	1	0.52	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	22	11	0.5	YYYYYYYnnY	4	2	0.5	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	11	7	0.64	YnnYYnYYYn	4	1	0.49	yes
Ballroom	ballroom	1	1	1	1	Y	4	0	0.48	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	37	18	0.49	YnnYnYYYYn	4	2	0.47	yes
Biden	biden	1	56	36	0.64	nnnYYnnYYY	4	3	0.45	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	38	20	0.53	nnnnYYYnYY	4	2	0.44	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	1	27	11	0.41	nYYnnYnYYn	4	2	0.44	yes
Manufacturing	manufacturing	1	20	11	0.55	YnYnnYnYYn	4	1	0.43	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	32	15	0.47	YnYYYnYnnY	4	3	0.43	yes
American Dream	american dream	1	28	17	0.61	nnnYnnnnYn	4	0	0.4	no
Election	election	1	28	12	0.43	nnYYnnnYnY	4	0	0.37	yes
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	1	5	2	0.4	nYnYn	4	3	0.37	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	29	10	0.34	YnYnnnnYYn	4	0	0.35	yes
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	16	5	0.31	nYnnnnYnnn	4	2	0.3	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	31	7	0.23	nnnYnnnYnn	4	1	0.29	no
Iran (5+ times)	iran#5	5	2	0	0	nn	4	2	0.29	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	8	2	0.25	nYnnnYnn	4	2	0.28	no
Made in America / American Made	american made|made in america	1	6	1	0.17	nnYnnn	4	0	0.27	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	43	7	0.16	nYnnnnnnYn	4	2	0.24	yes
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	1	13	2	0.15	nnnnnnYnnn	4	0	0.23	yes
America First	america first	1	36	5	0.14	nnnnnnnnYn	4	0	0.19	no
Radical Left	radical left	1	24	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	4	0	0.13	no