# JD Vance (jd-vance) · rally 2026-10-05 · 27 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT05 · as_of 2026-10-24T06:14:46Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-10-05 · tn/th last 5 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-09-03 (under 2 rally transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26OCT05 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Midterm Rally in Fairbanks, Alaska originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	49	38	0.78	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.78	hist	yes
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime	tax on overtime|tax on tip	16	14	0.88	YYYYnYYYYY	5	0	0.77	hist	no
Biden	biden	66	46	0.7	YYYYYYYYYY	5	4	0.72	hist	yes
Social Security	social security	5	4	0.8	nYYYY	5	2	0.69	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	43	29	0.67	YYYnnYYYYY	5	3	0.68	hist	yes
Election	election	37	21	0.57	YYYYYYYYYY	5	1	0.68	hist	yes
Russia / Russian	russia|russian	2	2	1	YY	5	1	0.59	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	35	18	0.51	YnYYYYYnYY	5	3	0.59	hist	no
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	26	12	0.46	YYnnYYnYYY	5	3	0.59	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	45	26	0.58	nYYYYYYnYY	5	3	0.57	hist	no
Working Class / Middle Class	middle class|working class	21	8	0.38	nnYYnnYYYY	5	1	0.57	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	23	16	0.7	YnnYnnnYYY	5	2	0.56	hist	no
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	12	6	0.5	nYnYnnnYYY	5	4	0.55	hist	yes
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	47	25	0.53	YYnYYYYnnY	5	3	0.53	hist	no
Korea / Korean	korea|korean	0	0			5	0	0.52	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	14	4	0.29	nYnnnnnYnY	5	0	0.44	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	31	3	0.1	nnnnnnnYYY	5	0	0.39	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	20	10	0.5	nYnYnYnnnn	5	2	0.38	hist	no
American Dream	american dream	35	19	0.54	nYnnYnnYnn	5	0	0.36	hist	no
Manufacture / Manufacturing	manufacture|manufacturing	4	1	0.25	nnYn	5	2	0.36	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	31	12	0.39	YYnnnnnnnn	5	3	0.3	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	35	11	0.31	nYYnYnnnnn	5	1	0.27	hist	no
America First	america first	45	6	0.13	nnnnnnYnnn	5	0	0.22	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	53	9	0.17	YnnnnnYnnn	5	3	0.21	hist	no
Made in America / American Made	american made|made in america	13	1	0.08	nnnnnnnnnn	5	0	0.17	hist	no
Drill / Drilling	drill|drilling	0	0			5	0	0.46	prior	yes
Pipeline	pipeline	0	0			5	0	0.46	prior	no