# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-03-03 · 21 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAR03 · as_of 2026-10-25T19:05:29Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-03 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAR03 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: Jesse Watters Primetime, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	19	16	0.84	YnYYYYYYnY	2	2	0.73	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	12	10	0.83	YYYYYYnYYY	2	2	0.7	hist	yes
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	4	4	1	YYYY	2	1	0.69	hist	no
Minnesota / Minneapolis	minneapolis|minnesota	2	2	1	YY	2	1	0.6	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	6	5	0.83	YYYnYY	2	1	0.6	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	1	1	Y	2	1	0.54	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	2	1	0.5	nY	2	1	0.5	hist	yes
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.38	hist	yes
Protest / Protester	protest|protester	1	0	0	n	2	1	0.34	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	0	0			2	0	0.33	hist	no
America First	america first	12	3	0.25	nnnYYnnnnn	2	0	0.29	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	17	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.13	hist	no
Congress / Congressional	congress|congressional	0	0			2	2	0.44	prior	no
Epic Fury	epic fury	0	0			2	0	0.44	prior	no
Hormuz	hormuz	0	0			2	0	0.44	prior	no
Khamenei / Ayatollah	ayatollah|khamenei	0	0			2	0	0.44	prior	no
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	0	0			2	2	0.44	prior	no
Oil	oil	0	0			2	0	0.44	prior	no
Regime	regime	0	0			2	1	0.44	prior	yes
Transition / Revolution	revolution|transition	0	0			2	0	0.44	prior	no
Uranium	uranium	0	0			2	0	0.44	prior	no