# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-08-13 · 23 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26AUG13 · as_of 2026-10-24T05:05:15Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-08-13 · tn/th last 4 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-06-18 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26AUG13 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: The Will Cain Show , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Save Act / Save America Act	save act|save america act	1	3	3	1	YYY	4	1	0.62	hist	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	10	7	0.7	YYnYYYnYYn	4	1	0.56	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	1	30	20	0.67	nYnnnnYYYY	4	2	0.56	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	1	15	9	0.6	YYnnnYYYYY	4	3	0.56	hist	yes
Iran	iran	1	13	7	0.54	YnYnnYnYYY	4	2	0.56	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	18	9	0.5	YYnnYYYYYY	4	2	0.53	hist	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	30	14	0.47	nYYnYYYnYn	4	3	0.53	hist	no
Socialist / Socialism	socialism|socialist	1	1	1	1	Y	4	0	0.52	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	14	5	0.36	nYnnnnYYnY	4	1	0.41	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	7	4	0.57	YYnnYYn	4	1	0.39	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	1	34	17	0.5	nnnnnnnnYY	4	2	0.38	hist	yes
American Dream	american dream	1	27	17	0.63	YnnnYnnnnY	4	0	0.37	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	33	15	0.45	YnnnYnnYnY	4	2	0.35	hist	yes
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	1	6	2	0.33	nnYYnn	4	4	0.34	hist	no
Election	election	1	24	10	0.42	YnnnnnYYnn	4	0	0.33	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	30	7	0.23	YnnnYnnnYn	4	1	0.32	hist	no
2028 / Campaign	2028|campaign	1	15	5	0.33	nnYnnnnYnn	4	2	0.29	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	7	2	0.29	nYnnnYn	4	2	0.27	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	40	6	0.15	nnnnYnnnnn	4	2	0.18	hist	no
America First	america first	1	32	4	0.12	nnYnnnnnnn	4	0	0.15	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	1	22	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	4	0	0.12	hist	no
Air Force One	air force one	1	0	0			4	0	0.39	prior	no
Deport / Deported / Deportation	deport|deportation|deported	1	0	0			4	1	0.39	prior	no