# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-02-15 (settled) · 26 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26FEB16 · as_of 2026-10-26T08:58:40Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-15 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26FEB16 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Feb 16, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:29Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Mental Institution	mental institution	15	14	0.93	YYYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.86	hist	0	0	no	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	44	31	0.7	YYnYYYYYYY	1	1	0.81	hist	0	0	yes	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	16	12	0.75	YYYnYYYYYn	1	1	0.76	hist	0	0	no	1
Thug	thug	17	13	0.76	nnYnYYYYYY	1	0	0.73	hist	0	0	no	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	6	5	0.83	nYYYYY	1	1	0.72	hist	0	0	no	1
IQ	iq	19	12	0.63	YYYYYYnYYY	1	1	0.72	hist	0	0	no	1
Cookie	cookie	6	6	1	YYYYYY	1	0	0.7	hist	0	0	no	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	25	17	0.68	YYnnYYYYYY	1	0	0.7	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	39	24	0.62	nnnnYYnnYY	1	0	0.7	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	63	33	0.52	YYnYYnYYYY	1	1	0.69	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	56	30	0.54	nYYnnYYnnY	1	1	0.68	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	25	16	0.64	YYnnnYYYYY	1	0	0.65	hist	0	0	no	1
Olympics	olympic	25	13	0.52	nYYnYYnYnY	1	0	0.65	hist	0	0	no	1
Somalia / Somali / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	28	13	0.46	nnYnnYnYYn	1	1	0.65	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	34	20	0.59	YYYnnnnYYY	1	0	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	35	19	0.54	nYYYYYYYYn	1	0	0.61	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	16	8	0.5	nYYYnnnYnY	1	0	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	46	27	0.59	YnnnnnYnnn	1	0	0.48	hist	0	0	no	1
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	29	10	0.34	nnnnnYYYnn	1	1	0.45	hist	0	0	yes	1
Paid Agitator	paid agitator	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.44	hist	0	0	no	1
Golden Dome	golden dome	14	4	0.29	nnnnYnnnnn	1	0	0.39	hist	0	0	no	1
Epstein	epstein	73	16	0.22	nYnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.39	hist	0	0	yes	1
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	271	26	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.36	hist	0	0	no	1
Antifa	antifa	13	2	0.15	nnnnnnnnnn	1	1	0.35	hist	0	0	no	1
Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis	cannabis|marijuana|weed	26	3	0.12	YYnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.19	hist	0	0	no	1
Discombobulator	discombobulator	0	0			1	0	0.55	prior	0	0	yes	1