# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · briefing 2026-02-21 · 25 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26FEB21 · as_of 2026-10-25T03:14:32Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-02-21 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 briefing transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26FEB21 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Press Briefing on the Supreme Court decision, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Trillion	trillion	70	51	0.73	nYYYYYnYYY	1	1	0.67	hist	yes
Biden	biden	181	129	0.71	nnnnYYYYYY	1	1	0.66	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	84	57	0.68	nYnnYYnYYY	1	1	0.65	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	107	66	0.62	nnnnnnnnYY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
China	china	115	74	0.64	YnnnYnYYYY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Iran	iran	46	28	0.61	YYYnnnYnnn	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Stock Market	stock market	37	22	0.59	YYYYYYnYYY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Eight War	eight war	53	31	0.58	YnYnnnYYnY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	148	82	0.55	nnYYYnYYYY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Investment / Invested	invested|investment	22	13	0.59	YYYYnYnYnY	1	1	0.56	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	57	31	0.54	YYnnYYnnYY	1	1	0.52	hist	yes
Disgrace / Disgraceful	disgrace|disgraceful	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.51	hist	yes
Alien	alien	3	2	0.67	YYn	1	1	0.5	hist	no
America First	america first	23	11	0.48	nYnnnYnYYY	1	0	0.5	hist	no
Most Favored Nation	most favored nation	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.48	hist	no
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	0	0			1	0	0.47	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	45	19	0.42	nnnnYYYYnn	1	1	0.43	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	45	19	0.42	nnYnnnnYnY	1	1	0.42	hist	yes
Manufacturing	manufacturing	17	5	0.29	nnnnYnYnnn	1	0	0.41	hist	no
Too Late	too late	16	4	0.25	nnnnnnnYnn	1	1	0.38	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	64	21	0.33	nnYnnnnnnn	1	1	0.34	hist	no
Epstein	epstein	76	17	0.22	nnnnnYnnnn	1	0	0.32	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	276	26	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.17	hist	no
Kavanaugh	kavanaugh	0	0			1	0	0.52	prior	yes
Refund	refund	0	0			1	0	0.52	prior	no