Will Donald Trump say “Vaccine”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Vaccine” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 25, 2024 (43%), most recently on Sep 22, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Vaccine
- Probability
- 37% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Vaccine”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Vaccine” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 25, 2024 (43%), most recently on Sep 22, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Vaccine” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Vaccine’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/vaccine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=vaccine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP