# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · rally 2025-10-25 · 24 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT25 · as_of 2026-10-25T02:12:31Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-25 · tn/th blank: no rally transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25OCT25 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Tele-rally for New Jersey Gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli on October 24th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	79	66	0.84	YYYYYnYYYY	0.79	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	22	16	0.73	YYYnYnYYnY	0.66	hist	yes
Disaster	disaster	3	3	1	YYY	0.65	hist	yes
Tax	tax	9	7	0.78	nYYYYYnYY	0.62	hist	yes
Border	border	43	29	0.67	YnYYnnYYnY	0.61	hist	yes
Energy	energy	19	13	0.68	YYYYnnYYnY	0.6	hist	yes
Drug	drug	12	8	0.67	YnYYYYnnYY	0.6	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	35	22	0.63	nYnnnYYYnY	0.59	hist	no
Radical Left	radical left	12	8	0.67	YYnYnYYYnn	0.58	hist	yes
Inflation	inflation	11	6	0.55	nnYYYnnYYn	0.53	hist	no
Corrupt	corrupt	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.53	hist	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	9	6	0.67	YYYYYnYnn	0.52	hist	yes
Trump	trump	7	4	0.57	YYYnnYn	0.52	hist	no
New York	new york	6	3	0.5	YnYnnY	0.51	hist	no
Cheat / Cheater / Cheated	cheat|cheated|cheater	0	0			0.51	hist	no
Antisemitism / Antisemitic	antisemitic|antisemitism	1	0	0	n	0.49	hist	no
Crook / Crooked	crook|crooked	0	0			0.49	hist	no
Windmill	windmill	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.48	hist	yes
Invest / Investment	invest|investment	0	0			0.48	hist	no
Transgender	transgender	32	15	0.47	YnYYnnnYnn	0.47	hist	no
Bedminster	bedminster	0	0			0.54	prior	no
Congestion	congestion	0	0			0.54	prior	no
Flip	flip	0	0			0.54	prior	no
Scandal	scandal	0	0			0.54	prior	no