# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2025-11-11 · 21 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV11 · as_of 2026-10-25T06:49:27Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-11 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25NOV11 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Swearing-in Ceremony for the Ambassador to the Republic of India, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Biden	biden	96	75	0.78	nnnYYYYYnY	0.76	yes
China	china	58	48	0.83	YYYnYYYYnY	0.71	yes
Tariff	tariff	56	44	0.79	nYYYnYYYnY	0.7	yes
Trillion	trillion	15	11	0.73	YYnnYYYYnY	0.61	yes
Hottest	hottest	57	33	0.58	nnYYnYnnYn	0.61	no
Border	border	59	37	0.63	nnnYYYnYnn	0.6	no
Nuclear	nuclear	57	36	0.63	YYnnnYYnYn	0.59	no
Car / Truck	car|truck	1	1	1	Y	0.54	yes
Investment	investment	26	14	0.54	YnnYYYYYnY	0.54	yes
Fake News	fake new	30	16	0.53	nYnnYYnYYY	0.54	no
Modi	modi	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.53	yes
Stock Market	stock market	9	5	0.56	YYYnnYYnn	0.51	no
Healthcare	healthcare	7	4	0.57	YYnnYYn	0.49	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	16	9	0.56	YnnYnYYnnn	0.47	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	41	18	0.44	nnnnYnYnYY	0.45	no
Oil	oil	26	8	0.31	nnYYYYnnnn	0.43	yes
Supreme Court	supreme court	8	2	0.25	nnnnYnYn	0.43	yes
Schumer	schumer	15	5	0.33	nnnnYYnnnn	0.39	no
Water	water	19	5	0.26	nnnnnYnnnn	0.34	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	173	18	0.1	YYYYnnnnnn	0.24	no
Sanction	sanction	25	3	0.12	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.23	no