Will Donald Trump say “Genocide”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Genocide” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 21, 2025 (40%), most recently on May 21, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Genocide
- Probability
- 41% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2025 | Genocide |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Genocide |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Genocide | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 23, 2025 | Genocide | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 21, 2025 | Genocide | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Genocide”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Genocide” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 21, 2025 (40%), most recently on May 21, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Genocide” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Genocide’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/genocide (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=genocide · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP