# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-05 · 25 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT05 · as_of 2026-10-24T15:49:30Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-05 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT05 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Remarks at America's Navy 250, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	59	49	0.83	YnYYYYYYYY	0.86	hist	no
China	china	36	30	0.83	YYnnYYYYYn	0.67	hist	yes
Election	election	11	8	0.73	YYYnYnYYYn	0.58	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	10	7	0.7	nYnYYnYYYY	0.58	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	34	23	0.68	nYYYYnYYYn	0.58	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	13	7	0.54	YYYnnYnnnY	0.54	hist	yes
Border	border	29	19	0.66	nYnYYnYnYY	0.53	hist	yes
Golden Age	golden age	6	5	0.83	YnYYYY	0.5	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	4	1	0.25	nnnY	0.47	hist	yes
George Washington	george washington	2	1	0.5	nY	0.45	hist	no
Russia	russia	30	17	0.57	YnnnYYYnnn	0.44	hist	no
Cartel	cartel	0	0			0.44	hist	yes
Ship Building / Shipbuilding	ship building|shipbuilding	0	0			0.44	hist	no
Submarine / Sub	sub|submarine	0	0			0.44	hist	yes
Ukraine	ukraine	20	12	0.6	nYYnYnYnnn	0.43	hist	no
Gaza / Hamas	gaza|hama	0	0			0.43	hist	no
Medal of Honor	medal of honor	1	1	1	Y	0.42	hist	yes
Gulf of America	gulf of america	1	1	1	Y	0.41	hist	yes
America First	america first	10	6	0.6	YYnYYYYnnn	0.4	hist	no
Schumer	schumer	0	0			0.38	hist	no
Terror	terror	1	0	0	n	0.32	hist	no
World War	world war	5	1	0.2	nYnnn	0.3	hist	yes
Fleet	fleet	0	0			0.39	prior	yes
Midway	midway	0	0			0.39	prior	yes
Pearl Harbor	pearl harbor	0	0			0.39	prior	no