Will Karoline Leavitt say “JD / Vance”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “JD / Vance” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
JD / Vance
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
And one more on Iran. The Vice President, JD Vance, went on this podcast with Joe Rogan yesterday, talked about Israel, in which he said…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…Saturday, if the dinner is rescheduled, would President Trump and Vice President JD Vance both plan on attending? And is it wise to have both…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…his negotiating team led by the Vice President of the United States, JD Vance, Special Envoy Witkoff, and Mr. Kushner to Islamabad for talks this…
In addition to that, when it comes to the vice president, JD Vance, what has changed that has made him more of an active participant…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | JD / Vance |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “JD / Vance”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “JD / Vance” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “JD / Vance” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘JD / Vance’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/jd-or-vance (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=jd%20%2F%20vance · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP