Will Karoline Leavitt say “Hormuz”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Hormuz” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Hormuz
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…were not to fire on commercial vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz. And unfortunately, they have made the tragic decision for them to do…
…to the Pentagon on anything with respect to clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Fran. I'll come back to you after, but go ahead.
Any updates on the insurance program, the US reinsurance program for ships and tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz? Any update on that, sir?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…PM deadline last night. Iran has agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz, and as the President said, we have received a proposal from the…
…longer control the world's free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, which is something the administration continues to tackle day-by-day as well. Jennifer.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Hormuz |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Hormuz”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Hormuz” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Hormuz” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Hormuz’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/hormuz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=hormuz · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP