Tesla (TSLA): FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 21, 2026
On its Oct 21, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), Tesla said 24 of the 39 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 39 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
39 words · 24 settled yes · our count agreed on 39 of 39- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus | Yes | 43 | 43 | ✓ | 98%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 4:43, Optimus | – |
| Cybercab | Yes | 23 | 28 | ✓ | 92%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:58, Cybercab | – |
| Robotaxi 5+ times | Yes | 22 | 22 | ✓ | 85%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:23, Robotaxi 5+ times | – |
| Robot | Yes | 21 | 21 | ✓ | 96%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 5:22, Robot | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 17 | 17 | ✓ | 83%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 7:05, AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | – |
| Robotaxi | Yes | 15 | 22 | ✓ | 97%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:23, Robotaxi | – |
| Software | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 18:37, Software | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 92%n=6+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 17:50, Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | – |
| SpaceX / xAI | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 90%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:25, SpaceX / xAI | – |
| SpaceX | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 75%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:25, SpaceX | – |
| America | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 88%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 11:40, America | – |
| Terafab | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 77%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 8:22, Terafab | – |
| Semi | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 90%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:05, Semi | – |
| Texas | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 79%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 17:51, Texas | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 23%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 15:11, SI / Super Intelligence | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 89%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 13:02, Tariff | – |
| China | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 79%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 36:15, China | – |
| Roadster | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 36%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:08, Roadster | – |
| Merge / Merger | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 11%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 9:43, Merge / Merger | – |
| Solar | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 89%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 17:02, Solar | – |
| Competition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 36:30, Competition | – |
| Megapack 3 | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 64%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 15:21, Megapack 3 | – |
| Cybertruck | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 58%n=6+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 34:46, Cybertruck | – |
| Rocket | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 4:16, Rocket | – |
| Roadster 5+ times | No | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 8%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 2:08, Roadster 5+ times | – |
| Samsung | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 77%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Grok 3+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 72%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Supercharger / Super Charger | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 69%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Safety Monitor | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Afford / Affordable | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Waymo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Intel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| James Bond | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Flying Car | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=6+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Iran / Middle East | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Miami | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Six-Seater / Six-Seat | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Street Legal | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 22, 2026 15:30 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
28 matches for “Cybercab”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…match our scale with autonomous vehicles as we continue to ramp. The Cybercab fleet in Austin, for example, has grown by a factor of 10…
…you want to try it out, come into Austin and you'll see Cybercabs in use at scale in Austin. As I think a lot of…
…part of services and others, continued to grow with the launch of Cybercab rides in Austin. Accumulative unsupervised miles 8x in the quarter, as we…
…go to questions from say.com. The first question is, how does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what is the regulatory path outside Texas…
…Y, Model 3, et cetera. All of the data helped make the Cybercab without requiring a ridiculous amount of vehicles to produce the data. We…
Where the listed words were said
…this point because I have said this before, that the growth of Optimus, it's an S curve, but the initial part of the S curve…
Yeah. Like I mentioned earlier, the software for Cybercabs and Model Y is the same. Pretty soon we will be able to release the same…
…are now headed for a lot of fun and significant growth. Regarding Robotaxi, we are seeing the Robotaxi miles driven or fully autonomous miles driven…
…need to tweak about the design because you need to deliver a robot that is safe and reliable and has long duration. It can't wear…
…useful for open-ended tasks. Like I said, I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design, and the reliability and usage duration, the usage life…
…the next few years would continue to expand. As we add more Robotaxi fleet, we expand our production capacity for Optimus, install manufacturing capacity for…
…fact, next month we'll be launching in Dallas, and then the same software just scaled to lots of other cities, along with the Model Y…
We are actively working with the regulators in China because I do not know if you saw this, but we have released our safety report…
…ever. That is a testament to amazing work by the Tesla and SpaceX teams. We have also been laying the groundwork for a lot more…
With regard to a potential merger with SpaceX, I think I said everything that should be said yesterday, tap dancing through a minefield there. That's…
…key driver for demand. In Q3, over 75% of deliveries in North America included a sign-up for paid FSD subscription at the time of delivery,…
…close to Tesla with respect to a general-purpose humanoid robot. Regarding the Terafab, the Austin-based research fab is progressing quickly. We'll begin commissioning machinery in…
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