Tesla (TSLA): FY26 Q3 earnings call, Oct 21, 2026
On its Oct 21, 2026 earnings call (FY26 Q3), Tesla said 24 of the 39 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 39 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each, with timed clips.
UpdatedMarkets
39 words · 24 settled yes · our count agreed on 39 of 39- Kalshi: company speakers + operator
Kalshi - Polymarket: anyone
Polymarket
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Clip | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimus | Yes | 43 | 43 | ✓ | 98%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 4:43, Optimus | – |
| Cybercab | Yes | 23 | 28 | ✓ | 92%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:58, Cybercab | – |
| Robotaxi 5+ times | Yes | 22 | 22 | ✓ | 85%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:23, Robotaxi 5+ times | – |
| Robot | Yes | 21 | 21 | ✓ | 96%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 5:22, Robot | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | Yes | 17 | 17 | ✓ | 83%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 7:05, AI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ times | – |
| Robotaxi | Yes | 15 | 22 | ✓ | 97%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 3:23, Robotaxi | – |
| Software | Yes | 10 | 10 | ✓ | 94%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 18:37, Software | – |
| Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 92%n=6+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 17:50, Regulator / Regulatory / Regulation | – |
| SpaceX / xAI | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 90%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:25, SpaceX / xAI | – |
| SpaceX | Yes | 5 | 5 | ✓ | 75%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:25, SpaceX | – |
| America | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 88%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 11:40, America | – |
| Terafab | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 77%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 8:22, Terafab | – |
| Semi | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 90%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:05, Semi | – |
| Texas | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 79%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 17:51, Texas | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 23%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 15:11, SI / Super Intelligence | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 89%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 13:02, Tariff | – |
| China | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | 79%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 36:15, China | – |
| Roadster | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 36%n=3+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 2:08, Roadster | – |
| Merge / Merger | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 11%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 9:43, Merge / Merger | – |
| Solar | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 89%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 17:02, Solar | – |
| Competition | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 79%n=4+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 36:30, Competition | – |
| Megapack 3 | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 64%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 15:21, Megapack 3 | – |
| Cybertruck | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 58%n=6+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | Hear it 34:46, Cybertruck | – |
| Rocket | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 16%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 4:16, Rocket | – |
| Roadster 5+ times | No | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 8%transcripts from the transcript model | Hear it 2:08, Roadster 5+ times | – |
| Samsung | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 77%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Grok 3+ times | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 72%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Supercharger / Super Charger | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 69%n=5+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Safety Monitor | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 62%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Afford / Affordable | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 44%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Waymo | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=2+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Intel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 36%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| James Bond | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Flying Car | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 21%transcripts from the transcript model | – | |
| Gigafactory | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=6+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Iran / Middle East | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Miami | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Six-Seater / Six-Seat | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – | |
| Street Legal | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=1+tx from settlement history blended with transcripts | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 22, 2026 15:30 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsSpeaker-labelled transcript · Source and credits · Used to count words; quotes of at most 25 words.
5 matches for “2028”; 5 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…be making some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028. As I've said publicly on X, the Terafab I think will be…
…Elon, you mentioned that you had an an aspirational goal of 2Q 2028. Do you have a sense on how much capital needs to be…
…going to be less than tens of billions in capital equipment up through early 2028. Then it'll probably be north of $100 billion long term.
But real production would be late 2028, which is lightning fast by fab standards.
…little lower than we anticipated. But it will start to become more meaningful next year, and then noticeable in the tens of billions in 2028.
Where the listed words were said
…concert recently. This is really going to a very good place. Regarding Optimus, we've started what I'd call early production on our high-volume line in…
…match our scale with autonomous vehicles as we continue to ramp. The Cybercab fleet in Austin, for example, has grown by a factor of 10…
…are now headed for a lot of fun and significant growth. Regarding Robotaxi, we are seeing the Robotaxi miles driven or fully autonomous miles driven…
…there's 10,000 things that have to go right for production of the robot, and it'll move as fast as the slowest, least lucky of the…
…still quite a lot of work to do with regard to the AI and the robot for it to be truly useful for open-ended tasks.…
…of the businesses in services and other, including Supercharging and insurance. The Robotaxi business, which is part of services and others, continued to grow with…
…fact, next month we'll be launching in Dallas, and then the same software just scaled to lots of other cities, along with the Model Y…
…how does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what is the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA's open safety review? Ashok, did you want…
…ever. That is a testament to amazing work by the Tesla and SpaceX teams. We have also been laying the groundwork for a lot more…
With regard to a potential merger with SpaceX, I think I said everything that should be said yesterday, tap dancing through a minefield there. That's…
…key driver for demand. In Q3, over 75% of deliveries in North America included a sign-up for paid FSD subscription at the time of delivery,…
…close to Tesla with respect to a general-purpose humanoid robot. Regarding the Terafab, the Austin-based research fab is progressing quickly. We'll begin commissioning machinery in…
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