Will Donald Trump say “Vaccine / Vaccination”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Vaccine / Vaccination” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 8, 2026.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Vaccine / Vaccination
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 0/1 (0%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Vaccine / Vaccination |  Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Vaccine / Vaccination”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Vaccine / Vaccination” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Oct 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Vaccine / Vaccination” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Vaccine / Vaccination’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/vaccination-or-vaccine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=vaccination%20%2F%20vaccine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP