Will Mark Carney say “NATO”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Mark Carney said “NATO” at 10 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (62%), most recently on Sep 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.

46%from settlement history only · n=16Next: Keynote, Nov 18, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no no yes no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Market
80¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=nato

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Mark Carney

NATO

Probability
46% · n=16
Settled
10/16 (62%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Mark Carney yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Mark Carney say during the United Nations General Assembly? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks with the Prime Minister of Norway? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his European Parliament address? · settled no

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What will Mark Carney say during his homebuilding announcement? · settled no

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What will Mark Carney say during his defense announcement? · settled yes

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What will Mark Carney say during his NATO press conference? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks at the national Canada Day ceremony? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his remarks in Ireland? · not listed

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What will Mark Carney say during his press conference? · settled no

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What will Mark Carney say during his food announcement? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 17 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 24, 2026NATOKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Sep 20, 2026NATOKalshiYes
Sep 17, 2026NATOKalshiNo
Jul 29, 2026NATOKalshiNo
Jul 16, 2026NATOKalshiYes
Jun 12, 2026NATOKalshiNo
Jun 2, 2026NATOKalshiNo
May 29, 2026NATOKalshiYes
May 27, 2026NATOKalshiYes
May 20, 2026NATOKalshiYes
May 19, 2026NATOKalshiYes
Apr 11, 2026NATOKalshiNo
Apr 9, 2026NATOKalshiYes
Mar 31, 2026NATOKalshiNo
Mar 27, 2026NATOKalshiYes
Mar 26, 2026NATOKalshiYes
Feb 18, 2026NATOKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Mark Carney say “NATO”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Mark Carney said “NATO” at 10 of 16 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Feb 18, 2026 (62%), most recently on Sep 20, 2026.
What is the probability Mark Carney says “NATO” next time?
46%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Carney: ‘NATO’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/world/mark-carney/words/nato (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-carney&word=nato · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-carney&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP