Donald Trump: Episode, Sep 16, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during X space?
Markets
24 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Border | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cards | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golf | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NFT | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Barron | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Secret Service | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon Musk | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border 10+ times | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Doge | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Milady | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Retardio | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Routh | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rug | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| No | –new new word, no probability yet | – | |
| Comrade Kamala | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| DJT | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Memecoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Reserve | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Solana | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Loomer | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Slopadopoulos | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-x-space · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP