Donald Trump: Speech, Jul 18, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during his RNC speech?
Markets
19 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jail/Prison | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| MAGA | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Barron | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ear | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Secret Service | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unity | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Felon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hunter | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rigged | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hillbilly | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hitler | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| January 6 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jesus | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crack | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dementia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fake News | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Jew | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-his-rnc-speech · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP