Donald Trump: Speech, Oct 14, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his speech in Israel?
Markets
18 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 75%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 66%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 59%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Military | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Terrorist | Yes | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | Yes | 50%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Heinous | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hostage 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 49%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| October 7 | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Negotiate | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| World War | Yes | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 53%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Hamas 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Golden Dome | No | 46%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine | No | 31%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 28%n=14 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP