Donald Trump: Speech, Oct 14, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during the Peace Ceremony in Egypt?
Markets
18 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 78%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 65%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 62%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Military | Yes | 61%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza | Yes | 58%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| World War | Yes | 50%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 70%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist | No | 60%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Heinous | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Putin | No | 57%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 55%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate | No | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel Peace Prize | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 47%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | 40%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine | No | 27%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 24%n=15 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT14B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP