Will Donald Trump say “Missile defense shield”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Missile defense shield” at 11 of 14 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 3, 2024 (79%), most recently on Nov 4, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 46% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

46%from settlement history only · n=14counts: named speaker only
Last 10
8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Missile defense shield

Probability
46% · n=14
Settled
11/14 (79%)
Last 2 press conferences
said in 0 of 2

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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What will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 14 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Feb 4, 2025Missile defense shieldPolymarketNo
Nov 4, 2024Missile Defense ShieldPolymarketYes
Nov 3, 2024Missile Defense ShieldPolymarketYes
Nov 2, 2024Missile Defense ShieldPolymarketYes
Oct 31, 2024Missile Defense ShieldPolymarketYes
Oct 30, 2024Missile Defense ShieldPolymarketYes
Oct 27, 2024Missile Defense ShieldPolymarketNo
Oct 26, 2024Missile Defense ShieldPolymarketYes
Oct 21, 2024Missile defense shieldPolymarketYes
Oct 12, 2024Missile Defense ShieldPolymarketYes
Oct 11, 2024Missile Defense ShieldPolymarketNo
Oct 9, 2024Missile defense shieldPolymarketYes
Oct 6, 2024Missile defense shieldPolymarketYes
Oct 3, 2024Missile defense shieldPolymarketYes

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Missile defense shield”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Missile defense shield” at 11 of 14 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 3, 2024 (79%), most recently on Nov 4, 2024.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Missile defense shield” next time?
46%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Missile defense shield’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/missile-defense-shield (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=missile%20defense%20shield · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP