Donald Trump: Press conference, Jan 7, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during Mar-a-Lago press conference?
Markets
12 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAGA | Yes | 62%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 55%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon Musk | Yes | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Canada | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Greenland | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trudeau | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| McDonald's | No | 63%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tax cut | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 14%n=50 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-mar-a-lago-press-conference · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP