Donald Trump: Remarks, Jan 21, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during infrastructure announcement?
Markets
12 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | 49%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Altman | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ellison | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Energy 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| OpenAI | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oracle | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA | No | 55%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Elon Musk | No | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Texas | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 11%n=52 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-infrastructure-announcement · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP