Will Mark Kelly say “Hegseth”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Hegseth” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 11, 2026 (40%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Kelly
Hegseth
- Probability
- 32% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 3 episodes
- said in 2 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Mark Kelly say “Hegseth”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Hegseth” at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 11, 2026 (40%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Kelly says “Hegseth” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Kelly: ‘Hegseth’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mark-kelly/words/hegseth (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-kelly&word=hegseth · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-kelly&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP