Will Mark Kelly say “Trump”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Trump” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 26, 2025 (100%), most recently on Apr 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 episodes; Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026), since fewer than 2 keynotes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Kelly
Trump
- Probability
- 57% · n=4
- Settled
- 4/4 (100%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 2 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 episodes); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Mark Kelly say “Trump”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Trump” at 4 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 26, 2025 (100%), most recently on Apr 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Kelly says “Trump” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Kelly: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mark-kelly/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-kelly&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-kelly&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP