Will Mark Kelly say “Trump” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Trump” 3+ times at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 17, 2026 (40%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Kelly
Trump (3+ times)
- Probability
- 55% · n=5
- Settled
- 2/5 (40%)
- Last 3 episodes
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
6 counted; 62 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
2 counted; 40 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 2 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Trump (3+ times) | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Mark Kelly say “Trump (3+ times)”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Trump” 3+ times at 2 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jun 17, 2026 (40%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Kelly says “Trump (3+ times)” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Kelly: ‘Trump (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mark-kelly/words/trump-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-kelly&word=trump%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-kelly&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP