Will Mark Kelly say “Iran / Iranian”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Iran / Iranian” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (75%), most recently on Sep 29, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 3 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

53%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=mark-kelly&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Mark Kelly

Iran / Iranian

Probability
53% · n=4
Settled
3/4 (75%)
Last 3 episodes
said in 2 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Mark Kelly say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? · not said

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What will Mark Kelly say during The Weeknight? · said 1 time (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

1 counted; 2 by speakers the rule does not count.

Mark Kellyguest44:41In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 3 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

3 counted; 5 by speakers the rule does not count.

Mark Kellyguest30:41In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Mark Kellyguest31:58In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

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What will Mark Kelly say during his MS NOW interview? · not listed

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What will Mark Kelly say during Semafor World Economy 2026? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Mark Kelly say during his MS NOW interview? · not listed

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What will Mark Kelly say during his MS NOW interview? · not listed

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What will Senator Mark Kelly say during Jimmy Kimmel Live!? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 4 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 14, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiNo0
Sep 29, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes1
Sep 21, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes3
Apr 15, 2026Iran / IranianKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Mark Kelly say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Iran / Iranian” at 3 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (75%), most recently on Sep 29, 2026.
What is the probability Mark Kelly says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
53%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Kelly: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mark-kelly/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-kelly&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-kelly&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP