Will Mark Kelly say “Iran”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Iran” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 11, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Kelly
Iran
- Probability
- 54% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 3 episodes
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Mark Kelly say “Iran”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Iran” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 11, 2026 (50%), most recently on Mar 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Kelly says “Iran” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Kelly: ‘Iran’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mark-kelly/words/iran (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-kelly&word=iran · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-kelly&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP