Will Mark Kelly say “Election”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Election” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (80%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Mark Kelly
Election
- Probability
- 36% · n=5
- Settled
- 4/5 (80%)
- Last 3 episodes
- said in 2 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted; 24 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 2 by speakers the rule does not count.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Mark Kelly say “Election”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Mark Kelly said “Election” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 15, 2026 (80%), most recently on Oct 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Mark Kelly says “Election” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Mark Kelly: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mark-kelly/words/election (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=mark-kelly&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=mark-kelly&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP