Mark Kelly: Keynote, Apr 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Kelly say during Semafor World Economy 2026?
Markets
11 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Republican | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democracy | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Grocery | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPOLITICSMENTION-26APR15B · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP